Talking about British Columbia’s forest sector in 2026 means talking about uncertainty.
Those of us who work close to this industry have seen mill closures and curtailments, declining fibre availability, changing international markets, and forest-dependent communities trying to adapt to an increasingly difficult operating environment.
On top of these challenges sits one of the sector’s biggest trade issues: U.S. duties and tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber.
But there is an important distinction to make. Not everything happening in B.C.’s forest sector can be explained by tariffs. The situation is much more complex.
Is Canadian lumber really facing a 45% tariff?
During part of 2025, U.S. antidumping and countervailing duties on certain Canadian softwood lumber imports totalled approximately 35.16%: a 20.56% antidumping duty and a 14.63% countervailing duty.
Then another measure was added.
In September 2025, the United States announced an additional 10% Section 232 tariff on certain softwood timber and lumber imports, citing national-security considerations. The measure took effect on October 14, 2025. National Association of Home Builders
That explains why combined rates approaching 45% entered the conversation.
However, describing 45% as simply the current tariff rate in 2026 can now be misleading.
In April 2026, preliminary U.S. Department of Commerce results proposed lowering the antidumping duty from 20.56% to 10.66% and the countervailing duty from 14.63% to 14.17%, bringing those two components from 35.16% to approximately 24.83%. A later NAHB update placed the preliminary combined rate at about 25.9%. National Association of Home Builders
Adding the 10% Section 232 tariff produces an overall burden in the neighbourhood of 35%, although the actual treatment can depend on the producer, product and final administrative results.
That distinction matters.
Tariffs matter but so does the market
Higher tariffs do not automatically translate into higher lumber prices.
According to Madison’s Lumber Price Index data reported by the National Association of Home Builders, framing lumber stood at US$521.35 per 1,000 board feet on August 28, 2026.
That was 6.6% lower than a month earlier, but still 9.3% higher year over year. National Association of Home Builders
That is a useful reminder of how commodity markets work.
Housing demand, inventories, interest rates, wildfire disruptions, mill capacity, timber availability, transportation and economic expectations all interact with trade policy.
Tariffs are part of the equation.
They are not the entire equation.
British Columbia is facing pressures of its own
The province describes B.C.’s forest industry as supporting more than 2,000 facilities, nearly 100,000 direct and indirect jobs and close to $13 billion in annual GDP. BC Government News
But behind those numbers is an industry undergoing profound change.
Economically available fibre has become a major challenge. High operating costs, changing timber supply, difficult global markets for some forest products and trade uncertainty are adding further pressure.
One announcement this summer illustrates how significant those pressures have become.
Northwood: when 300 jobs remind us that statistics have faces
On July 14, 2026, Canfor announced the permanent closure of its Northwood Pulp Mill in Prince George.
Approximately 300 employees are directly affected, while the closure removes roughly 300,000 tonnes of annual Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft pulp production. GlobeNewswire
An important clarification is necessary here: Northwood is a pulp mill, not a softwood lumber sawmill, and Canfor did not attribute the closure directly to U.S. lumber tariffs.
Instead, the company cited structural changes in global pulp markets, new international production capacity, oversupply and downward pressure on pulp prices, combined with persistent challenges accessing economic fibre. GlobeNewswire
That distinction illustrates the larger story.
There is no single cause behind the forest sector’s difficulties.
By the first quarter of 2026, the BC Council of Forest Industries said the provincial forest sector had lost approximately 15,000 jobs since 2022, while 21 B.C. lumber mills had closed permanently or indefinitely since 2023. CityNews Vancouver
American builders are paying part of the bill too
The trade dispute does not affect Canada alone.
NAHB has repeatedly opposed duties on Canadian lumber, arguing that they effectively operate as an additional tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers at a time when housing affordability is already under significant pressure. National Association of Home Builders
That makes the softwood lumber dispute more than a Canadian forestry issue.
It is also an American housing affordability, construction-cost and supply-chain issue.
B.C.’s response: diversify
British Columbia is pursuing a strategy that may ultimately matter more than any individual tariff decision: reducing reliance on a single market while extracting more value from the timber that is available.
For 2026-27, Forestry Innovation Investment plans to invest more than $9 million in market-development initiatives, leveraged by more than $3 million from industry partners.
Those efforts target established and emerging markets including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the United Kingdom, while exploring opportunities in Mexico, the Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia. BC Government News
In January 2026, the province led a trade mission to India that promoted B.C.’s sustainable forestry products. In June, Premier David Eby led another mission to China as part of an explicit strategy to diversify trade beyond the United States. BC Government News
But diversification should not mean simply finding another country to buy the same commodity.
B.C. is also investing in mass timber, prefabricated wood construction and higher-value wood products. Provincial initiatives support technical approvals, building-code development and greater adoption of products and systems such as CLT and glulam. BC Government News
This may be one of the most important parts of the conversation.
The question is no longer only:
Where can B.C. sell its lumber?
It is also:
How can we generate more value from the timber that remains available?
Behind the statistics are communities
For those of us working in this sector and seeing these changes up close, these numbers are not abstract.
We have seen work decline, production change and uncertainty grow. Every mill closure represents far more than another statistic in an economic report.
It means workers.
Contractors.
Forestry professionals.
Families.
And, across many parts of British Columbia, entire communities whose economies have been connected to forests for generations.
U.S. tariffs are an important pressure on the industry, but blaming them for everything happening in B.C. would oversimplify the problem.
The province also faces structural challenges involving fibre availability, costs, industrial capacity and global markets.
At the same time, there is an opportunity to rethink what the next chapter of forestry in British Columbia could look like: more value from less fibre, greater market diversification, more innovation in wood construction and a more resilient forest economy.
Perhaps that is the conversation we need to be having.
